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Indholdsområde
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The Royal Danish Defence publishes a great number of reports, research papers, briefs, books and articles partly within the framework of the academy’s own RDDC Publishing House, partly in military journals or books from other research institutions.
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Cooperating in War - Coalition Warfare in Afghanistan
Authors: MSc. Political Science Emma Knudsen and Stine Klingenberg
The report examines key challenges which NATO and the ISAF coalition have faced during the war in Afghanistan by looking at the character of the three core challenges: unity of effort, unity of command and civil-military cooperation.
NATO/ISAF have faced significant challenges in relation to unity of effort and unity of command - both of which are difficult to fully eliminate when wars are fought in a coalition. Civil-military coordination has been another important challenge during the war in Afghanistan and one which will probably become increasingly relevant in future wars and demand increased attention from both policy planners and decision makers.
The report written by MSc. Political Science Emma Knudsen and Stine Klingenberg is based on a number of interviews with civilian and military experts from think tanks in Washington DC, from NATO, Brussels, and from Denmark
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Battlespace Agility 201: The OODA Moment
Author: William Mitchell, Ph.D.
Ph.D. William Mitchell illustrates in his brief how cyber technology has affected battlespace agility by increasing the tempo of decision-making dramatically.
The analysis is based on US Col. John Boyd’s ”Observe-Orient-Decide-Act” Loop (OODA) from 1970 and investigates how three specific technologies - JCHAT, SharePoint and Clouding - increase the decision-making tempo in the battlespace.
This is a sequel of the brief Battlespace Agility 101 previously published by the author.
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Asymmetric threats at sea: a perspective on three cases
Author: Associate Professor, ph.d. Francois Vreÿ
Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
The international response to piracy through naval deployments off the Horn of Africa indicated that the piracy threat held a greater challenge than expected. The incompatibility between the war-fighting capabilities of the naval forces and the non-military status of the pirate groups can be attributed to the asymmetric nature of operations between the two actors.
The piracy case off Somalia is not the only example of how asymmetry at sea offsets stronger and more sophisticated opponents. In a scenario closer to naval warfare, Iran with its Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is an example of deliberate employment of asymmetry to counter the advantages of opposing naval forces in the Persian Gulf region.
The Sea Tigers of the LTTE movement in Sri Lanka also portrays the use of asymmetry at sea, but by an irregular opponent against a regular navy.
Whereas the pirates off Somalia do not deliberately employ asymmetry, but perhaps exploit the advantages, Iran made a conscious decision to plan and equip for asymmetry by investing in a naval force operating in parallel with its regular navy. In contrast, the Sea Tigers, being an irregular force, used asymmetry at sea through tactics and equipment to wage its low-intensity conflict against the Sri Lanka Navy.
In each of the three cases, whether it is a deliberate military, insurgent or criminal strategy, the asymmetry in the respective threats has complex, if not dangerous, consequences for naval forces.
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The US Pivot Towards Asia-Pacific - Third Time's the Charm?
Author: Philip Ulrich, M.A. in American Studies
In his brief, Philip Chr. Ulrich analyses the Obama administration’s new Asia-Pacific strategy and sets it in relation to Post-Cold War US foreign policy.
The brief shows that the new Asia-Pacific strategy follows a course in US foreign policy set in the mid-1990s, attempting to focus on the strategic challenges in the region. For almost 20 years, the US has attempted to shift its focus towards the Asia-Pacific region, and therefore the European allies will have to accept the new strategy as a fact which will demand an adaptation and may put greater security responsibilities onto the European allies.
The previous two attempts of shifting focus by Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were derailed by large unforeseen conflicts leading to US commitment on a scale which meant that the United States did not have the resources to implement a focus on the Asia-Pacific region.
With the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US can now commit the necessary resources for another attempt at a strategic shift of focus towards Asia-Pacific. The Obama administration has proven itself very committed to the new strategy which was announced in its “Strategic Guidance” from January 2012. An example of this commitment is the US unwillingness to lead operations against Libya, in order to avoid being drawn into a new Middle Eastern war, in order to maintain the resources for the Asia-Pacific focus.
The new focus on Asia-Pacific will thus be a guiding principal of future US foreign policy given that the US can avoid engagement in another unforeseen large-scale conflict.
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Security Sector Reform in an Unstable, Fragile State (II/III)
Author: Ph.D. Christian Bayer Tygesen
This policy brief examines central obstacles to effective security sector reform in unstable and fragile state environments and outlines steps to address them.
The brief begins by introducing the concept and purposes of security sector reform and the poor track record of efforts to conduct security sector reform in post-conflict and conflict environments.
This leads to an examination of two crucial challenges to security sector reform in unstable, fragile state environments such as Afghanistan and Iraq: the gap between the progress of civilian and military institutions in the fragile state; and the politicization of the military.
The brief concludes by outlining measures to address both challenges in order to advance a more effective approach to security sector reform in an unstable and fragile state environment.
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The Effect of National Factors on the Statebuilding Outcome in Fragile, Non-Permissive Environments (I/III)
Author: Ph.D. Christian Bayer Tygesen
This brief by presents a crucial lesson on the dynamics of statebuilding in unstable, fragile state environment: the impact of international actions and resources on the statebuilding outcome is secondary to, and highly dependent upon, the impact of the preferences and capacity of national actors.
The brief begins by situating this lesson in the debate on the future of statebuilding. This leads to a presentation of two national factors that have a significant impact on the statebuilding outcome. Finally, the brief draws two strategic implications of this lesson for statebuilding in unstable, fragile state environments.
The brief is the first in a series of three which deal with some of the challenges in unstable and fragile states.
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Overwhelming Force – A Persistent Concept in US Military Thinking
Author: M.A. Philip Ulrich
In his book, The Army and Vietnam, Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. concludes that the US defeat in Vietnam was partially a result of the US Army’s focus on conventional warfare, what he calls the “Army Concept”.
But where does this Army Concept evolve from? In his brief, Philip Ulrich traces the origins of the Army Concept back to the American Civil War, and the lessons that the US Army took from that war. These lessons led to a strict adherence in the US Army to the concept of overwhelming force, designed to overwhelm the enemy. Initially the lessons of the Civil War became the basis for what Philip Ulrich calls the “Civil War Concept”, based on overwhelming numbers in personnel and material superiority.
The US Army followed this concept, and the entire US military for that matter, until the Vietnam War. Before the Vietnam War the concept was changed in order to limit the risk to ground forces by a greater reliance on firepower. This was the birth of Krepinevich’s Army Concept, which meant a reliance on overwhelming force in the shape of firepower.
Instead of adapting to the situations facing US forces in Korea and Vietnam, the US Army sought to stick to its concept, and when faced with failure, it was explained by a lack of commitment to the concept.
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Battlespace Agility 101
Author: William Mitchell, Ph.D.
This brief by Ph.D William Mitchell presents the method Target Network Modelling (TNM) and describes how it can be used to increase shared understanding and situational awareness in a single unit and between units, thereby making them more agile in the battlespace.
If the Commander, the intelligence shop, and the operations people cannot draw a common picture of their battlespace, it is unlikely they will agree on the scope, type, and tempo, of the actions necessary to achieve the desired effects. Moreover, there will likely be disagreement on the measurements of effectiveness (MoEs) and measurements of performance (MoPs).
In short, without shared situational awareness and understanding, the unit will likely start off in the wrong direction, and the likely result will be military actions that do not produce the desired effects effectively enough, not at all, or make things worse. Target Network Modelling (TNM), which is presented in the brief, is a simple yet effective methodology which can be used to increase both shared understanding and situational awareness.
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Three C2 Models for Military Agility in the 21st Century
Author: William Mitchell, Ph.D.
Battlespace agility is a warfi ghting concept defi ned as the speed at which the warfighting organisation is able to transform knowledge into actions for desired effects in a battlespace. It stems directly from 20yrs of transformation and NATO C2 agility research and suggests that transformation should be driven by 4 fundamental capabilities & capacities for warfi ghting in the 21st century: Jointness; Cyber; Military Intelligence; and Special Operations Forces (SOF/SF). These capabilities form the foundation for the three hypothetical C2 models that refl ect the main body of agility research to date. The models do not refl ect political, cultural, traditional, or esprit de corps considerations. The models in this brief are in their most basic form, presented here without subjective nuances, and advocate transitions framework of these models. The briefs main argument is that by making agility the organizational objective, would produce a military capable of tackling the challenges of the 21st century – come what may.
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Denmark, Greenland and the Arctic - Challenges and opportunities of becoming the meeting place of global powers
Author: Damien Degeorges, PhD
This paper by PhD Damien Degeorges gives an update of the rapidly evolving situation concerning the role of Greenland – a territory as large as four times the size of France and only inhabited by less than 57,000 persons – in the Arctic and addresses issues that appeared central for Greenland’s development in 2012. Can Denmark follow the rapidly increasing international interest in Greenland? What are the challenges facing the Danish-Greenlandic relationship, internally and with regards to the Arctic? Is Greenland with limited capabilities able to handle further interest from major global powers?
This brief was originally published in October 2012 and has benn updated in January 2013.
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On Point – But Going Where?
The US Army’s Ideas of Its Future Role After Afghanistan
Author: Philip Ulrich, M.A. in American Studies
In the brief, Philip Ulrich analyzes how the US Army has sought to define its future role following the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Philip Ulrich argues that there are two developments going on in the US Army, as a result of the new strategic situation.
Finally, Philip Ulrich analyzes what significance this development in the United States has on the European allies in NATO, including Denmark.
The developments in the United States are particularly interesting in regards to economic cuts that many of the European nations face on defense spending. The new strategic situation means that the European allies may have to take on new roles in the future, as well as define which capacities the European allies will have to prioritize in the future.
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Black and White and the 256 Shades of Grey in Between
Reflections on the Question of Attribution for Psychological Operations.
Author: Thomas Elkjer Nissen, MA
This paper discusses the question of attribution, or source acknowledgment, for psychological operations in the contemporary information environment. The paper furthermore discusses the challenges to the existing attribution policies, or paradigms, presented by the current operational environment predominantly characterised by counterinsurgency operations and the developments within information technology and especially social network media or "new media".
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Militaert Tidsskrift (Military Journal) issue 4, 2011
The quarterly journal published by the Society for War Science in Denmark, is dedicated to presenting the MA-level teaching and research in strategy that takes place at the Royal Danish Defence College (RDDC). The issue, which has been edited by Associate Professor Liselotte Odgaard and Colonel Jens H. Garly, demonstrates that the close interplay between students, staff and external institutions and partners on strategic studies increases the level at which strategy is taught and written about at the college.
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Cyber Deterrence – a 21st century Maginot Line
Author: By MSc Thomas Thomasen
In this brief, Thomas Thomasen demonstrates that the unique characteristics of cyberspace form a sea of challenges to cyber deterrence. Deterrence strategies are currently being pursued by several states and are often portrayed as a silver bullet that can effectively counter the threats stemming from cyberspace. He argues that this is not necessarily the case.
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Project Kitae part I - second edition
Battlespace agility in Helmand: Network vs. hierarchy C2
Author: Ph.d. William Mitchell, Royal Danish defence College
This research paper presents some of the preliminary results from Part I of project Kitae1 in Helmand, Afghanistan with the purpose of identifying the command and control (C2) challenges in a complex battlespace. The objective is to highlight and analyze key C2 issues relative to battlespace agility and effect generation. The paper illustrates how the hierarchal operational C2 in battle reacts in the face of technology driven fl at-lining and the onset of network C2. It relies on targeting data for the assessment of effects production vis-à-vis C2 structures. The results are giving clear indications that traditional C2 hierarchies negatively affect battlespace agility.
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Project Kitae part II - second edition
Battlespace Intelligence: Social network vs. traditional time and space analysis in Helmand
Author: Ph.d. William Mitchell, Royal Danish defence College
This research brief focuses specifi cally on the preliminary fi ndings from project Kitae Part II that dealt with intelligence analysis challenges deriving from a complex battlespace. The theoretical approach includes constructivist and material/effi ciency approaches to understanding the challenges of the complex battlespace to military intelligence. These challenges to the traditional intelligence cycle are placed within a comparative framework of traditional time & space (TTS) approaches vs. a social network analysis approaches (SNA).
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Project Kitae part III - second edition
Unit construction for effect in a complex battlespace
Author: Ph.d. William Mitchell, Royal Danish defence College
This research paper focuses specifi cally on the preliminary fi ndings from project Kitae1 Part III that dealt with intelligence analysis challenges deriving from a complex battlespace his paper specifi cally examines a counter insurgency (COIN) organizational concept developed in Helmand, AFG. It focuses on the operations with an Afghan special operations unit known as the Afghanistan Territorial Force (ATF) working the Upper Gereshk Valley (UGV), Helmand during the fall of 2010.
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Tactical information operations in contemporary COIN campaigns
Author: Thomas Elkjer Nissen, Dept. of Joint Operations
This paper examines how the modern information environment affects the operational environment in contemporary COIN operations and how Information Operations (INFO OPS) fits into and supports these operations at the tactical level. Furthermore the paper looks at the techniques and capabilities that can be utilised for influence purposes in COIN, and not least all the things that lies behind the INFO OPS - specifically training and education, leadership, intelligence and planning principles unique to the successful conduct of Tactical INFO OPS in COIN.
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Libyan Myths and Realities
Author: Dr. Bruce St John
The author Dr. Bruce St John seeks to clarify the realities regarding the Libyan uprising in order to repudiate myths surrounding the state and its domestic situation. The paper discusses topics as civil society, the tribes, Islam and national unity. The author also examines the road to democracy and what the future looks like for post-Qaddafi Libya.
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Lebanon - strategic and military dimensions
Edited by Birthe Hansen and Bertel Heurlin
After the outbreak of the February 17th Libyan revolution, many so-called “Libya-experts” have emerged which frequently results in inadequate commentary on the developments. This research paper seeks to clarify the realities regarding the Libyan uprising and what the future looks like for post-Qaddafi Libya.
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Agile Sense-Making in the Battlespace
Author: Dr. William Mitchell, Royal Danish defence Academy
It is intended that this article be a contribution to the current Command and Control (C2) focus on power to edge principles, and the search for agility through self-synchronization. It adopts a social constructivist
approach, drawing a great deal of input from political science for its theoretical foundation. In this regard, the article recognizes the fundamental ontological shift from our previous understanding of strategic interaction based primarily on calculations from the physical domain, to modern warfare that depicts two interacting domains for strategic reference, one physical and the other cognitive (or ideational). It sees the skills of battlespace intelligence analyst as the key to sense-making agility in fighting complex conflicts. Then drawing on a constructivist understanding and examples from a complex battlespace, it will suggest three mutually supporting analytical skill-sets for further experiment and research to promote analytical
agility: Network philosophy; hypotheses generation and evaluation; and iterative model generation. It suggests that developing these generic skills in our military intelligence analysts will contribute greatly to building a more agile sense-making capacity within our warfighting organizations.
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Cyber Security: A primer
Author: CDR Peter J.B. Gottlieb
Cyber Security: A primer, seeks to uncover the dynamics of cyberspace, what cyberspace is, who are actors and what are their motives. Cyber Security concerns generally a holistic approach to security in cyberspace, and how to ensure its interests in a domain which differs markedly from the physical world.
This article is based upon a similar article published in the American Intelligence Journal of the National Military Intelligence Association, Vol. 28, No. 2, 2010."
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Security Sector Stabilisation in a Non-permissive Enviroment
- A contribution to Multinational Experiment 6 (MNE-6)
Author: Dr. Peter Dahl Thruelsen
This paper will focus on implementing Security Sector Stabilisation and Security Sector Reform programmes in a non-permissive environment and on identifying lessons in order to balance the short-term challenges with a long-term focus so that the initial efforts of the reform programme will not undermine long-term success. The focus will be on the role of external military forces in building the core security actors and their connection with the management and oversight bodies.
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Fighting an insurgency without unity - NATO in Afghanistan, 2006 to 2010
PhD project by Peter Dahl Thruelsen
The aim of this PhD project is to investigate some of the reasons for the fragile state of the Afghan mission by examining the role played by the international military forces and the variety of actors with whom they must interact in the search towards a credible end state. The role of the international military forces, their approach to supporting the overall project and their interplay with other actors will be dealt with, with the aim of generating comprehensive conclusions to be learned from the engagement in Afghanistan and beyond.
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The Return of China – Globalization and Economic Power
Author: Hans Hækkerup
Over the course of the past 30 years we have witnessed the return of China as an economic superpower. The present global economic crisis has only underscored this point. Furthermore, it is important to note that the economic return of China would not have been possible without the globalization of world trade. This study will discuss whether continued high growth in China is possible and what implications it will have for the world economy and for China’s position in the world.
The basic factors – an abundance of migrant workers and the high savings ratio – are still in place, but there are also limits to growth. Will the Chinese become old before they get rich? And will we see the Chinese in the cities in the East and on the coast live in relative prosperity while the big majority is still relatively poor? And what will it mean for the stability of the political system in China?
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Climate Change and Security Problems
Geographical and Functional Implications for Military Organizations
Author: Steen Nordstrøm
This report seeks to investigate the security implications of climate change from a Western, primarily Danish, military perspective. How can adaptation to climate change spur confl ict and what implications does this have on military organizations? To answer these questions, the report parts from existing scenario-based analyses and take a mechanismbased approach. It describes the adaptation strategies that might lead to confl ict and addresses in detail how climate change can act as channel, catalyst and trigger of conflict. In order to understand the future roles which military organizations are likely to face in response to climate change, it is useful to identify these mechanisms that link global warming to security problems. Furthermore, establishing the workings of mechanisms is useful because they can be monitored and thus give warning about future challenges that are slowly emerging.
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The Long March - Building an Afghan National Army
Author: Peter Dahl Thruelsen
The Afghan National Army (ANA) is critical to the success of the allied efforts in Afghanistan and the ultimate stability of the national government. This monograph assesses the ANA's progress in the areas of recruitment, training, facilities, and operational capability. It draws on a variety of sources: in-country interviews with U.S., NATO, and Afghan officials; data provided by the U.S. Army; open-source literature; and a series of public opinion surveys conducted in Afghanistan over the past several years. Although the ANA has come a long way since the outset of the recent conflict in the country, the authors conclude that coalition forces, especially those of the United States, will play a crucial role in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, particularly in light of the increased threat from Taliban forces and other illegally armed criminal groups.
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Comprehensive Approach Capacity Building: Implementing the Effects Based Approach to Military Operations
Author: Dr. William Mitchell
This report is intended as a contribution to a growing array of information concerning the Danish initiative known as the Concerted Planning and Action of Civil and Military Activities in International Operations, commonly referred to as the comprehensive approach, or CA. It was introduced by the Danish Ministry of Defence and The Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 10 of March, 2004. The goals of the initiative were to improve the coordination and planning of both the civilian and military efforts in a mission area with special focus on the civilian element within ‘Theatre,’ while pursuing a more coordinated planning effort to optimize national effort. The central thrust of CA is to create more synergy between the military and non-military resources to maximize the desired effect at all levels of policy and plans, the tactical, the operational, the strategic, and the politicalnormative. In this regard CA represents a desire for a more effective doctrine when dealing with complex conflicts.
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Implementing the Comprehensive Approach in Helmand – Within the Context of Counterinsurgency
Author: Peter Dahl Thruelsen, Reseach Fellow
"The point of departure of this report will be an exclusive focus on comprehensive approach, the complex context of Helmand Province and the international and Danish setup there. The report will focus on the resources made available by the Danish state in the Afghan engagement. An overall research focus has been developed to centre the report on the elements of CA within the context of counterinsurgency. The recommendations given in this report have been derived from several field researches and through analysis of the actual situation and implementation in Helmand Province."
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The Anatomy of Counterinsurgency Warfare
Authors: Jens Ringmose, PhD
Kenneth Pedersen, Major
Lars Mouritsen, Major
Peter Dahl Thruelsen, Research Fellow
Since the beginning of the new millennium, the West has been increasingly involved in a tiresome and rather particular type of conflict: insurgency warfare. The bloody and shocking terrorist attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001 marked the beginning of a new era, and the introduction of new security measures since then have largely reshaped the operational reality within which American, British and Danish soldiers (among others) function on a daily basis. Concomitantly, the political and military discipline known as counterinsurgency (COIN) has been assigned a new and far more central position in the doctrines, planning and task portfolio of the Western forces.
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Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead
Editors: Cheryl Benard
Ole Kværnø
Peter Dahl Thruelsen
Kristen Cordell
In June 2007, the RAND Corporation and the Royal Danish Defence College hosted a conference titled “Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead”. The two-day event, held in Copenhagen, was attended by more than 100 politicians, scholars, academics, and representative of both governmental and nongovernmental institutions from more than 20 states. Its theme was to discuss the problems that Afghanistan faces in the wake of the U.S.-led attack on al Qaeda training camps and the Taliban government; examine the challenges confronting the NATO International Security Assistance Force as it coordinates nation-building activities in Afghanistan; and suggest ways to address these issues. This volume compiles 11 of the papers presented at the conference; themes include the importance of historical precedents, coordination among relevant parties, and the development of an all-encompassing, long-term strategic approach.
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Climate Security: From Agenda-setting to Policy
Author: Steen Nordstrøm
Despite considerable political attention, the climate change summit in Copenhagen, COP-15, yielded few tangible results, save for a watered down political accord (UNFCCC 2009). Even a binding multilateral agreement would, however, have been ineffective from a security standpoint. Climate policy is not a very effective security policy. States might commit to reducing CO2 emission over time but the build-up of greenhouse gases is likely to continue for decades because of the lagged effects associated with global warming (IPCC 2008). Only if we believe that international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emission is likely to succeed in the short run, and that climate related security problems will not materialize for another couple of decades, can we consider current efforts suffi
cient for achieving climate security. Otherwise, it is time to start thinking about a strategy for climate security.
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China tries to solve a dilemma in Sudan
Author: Morten Steinvig, Cand.mag.
In the not so distant past, China’s infl uence was largely confi ned to its immediate neighbourhood in Asia. Now its infl uence on global affairs is growing at a seemingly exponential rate. Beijing’s actions in safeguarding its economic and political interests, as well as its attempts to play by its own rules and norms, are increasingly affecting the interests of Western governments and certain normative standards of human rights, democracy, good governance and humanitarian intervention, whether China intends this or not. These two issues are present and have become conflated in China’s involvement in Africa in general, and in Sudan in particular.
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Wanted
A Change in Paradigms on the Middle East - A View of Political and Religious Trends
Author: dr. Azza Karam
Conceived of as a series of ‘acts’, we begin with the economic and political background. The second act will describe what I term as the Islamist Continuum. I will argue that Islamist movements fall on a spectrum characterised by a nominal unity of purpose (i.e. a more just/Islamic governance), but a signifi cant difference in methods. Then I depict how it is that Islamist movements are given an unparalleled boost both because of the decline of secular movements and “blowback” from US foreign policy – the latter seen as being realised and endorsed by both the European Union and Arab governments. But in this act too, I discuss how it is that religion is not only an occurrence in the Muslim world, but part and parcel of an ideological echo on both Eastern and Western hemispheres. In the fi nal acts, I will conclude by arguing that certain Islamist tendencies should not be seen as enemies, but rather as potentially powerful allies in an emerging ‘birthing’ of new discourses.
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In the Midst of Change
The US and the Middle East from the War in Iraq to the War in Gaza
Author: Helle Malmvig, Senior Researcher
As the US President Barack H. Obama took over in the White House, the Middle East stood in the midst of yet another war between Hamas and Israel; dividing the region and even the Palestinians themselves. The Obama administration inherited a fragile and highly unstable region, in part as a consequence of the expansionist strategy of the Bush administration. After three consecutive wars in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza, the security order of the Middle East is in shatters and regional divisions reign. Yet there are also new positive signs of rapprochements. The US seems intent on engaging with the Israeli-Palestinian issue right from the beginning, and the administration has already reached out to Syria and Iran.
This publications is part of a research collaboration on The Middle East between Danish Institute for International Studies and Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College.
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Aircraft Carriers: China´s way to Great Power Status?
Author: Kim Nødskov, Lieutenant Colonel
This research paper on the Chinese Carrier project, which is based on open sources, addresses the Chinese efforts to acquire an aircraft carrier. China has vital strategic interests in the South China Sea and is becoming increasingly vulnerable as she is relying more and more on vital sea lines of communication for import of oil and minerals. The Chinese has been researching carrier technology for decades and this paper addresses the various aspects of the carrier project, such as what type of carrier, aircraft to be used on the carrier, international partners, the establishment of a carrier group, logistical consequences and the strategic implications in the Asian region. The United States, Russia, India and England are all acquiring new aircraft carriers and China is likely to join them. The acquisition of a Chinese carrier will mark a considerable change to the PLA modernization process. Where the PLA modernization effort has had limited reach outside its borders, a Carrier is primarily designed for power projection abroad.
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Defence and Foreign Policy: The Case of South Africa
Author: Dr. Thomas Mandrup
The many years of military counter-insurgency operations in southern Africa meant that South Africa was perceived, both regionally and internationally, as possessing, in relative terms, a signifi cant military capacity. In the immediate aftermath of the transition in 1994, therefore, it was supposed that it would be able to play a central part in the resolution of future confl icts in southern Africa.
Part one of two research papers. Part two is titled; South African National Defence Force; a midwife of peace?
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South African National Defence Force; a midwife of peace?
Author: Dr. Thomas Mandrup
This research paper is an evaluation of The Souch African National Defence Force´s (SANDF) involvement in Peace Support Operations.
Part two of two research papers. Part one is titled; Defence and Foreign Policy: The Case of South Africa
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Russian Peacekeeping in Georgia/Abkhazia
Author: Peter Dahl Thruelsen
This working paper is a product of on-going research into conflicts and military involvement in the Eurasian region. The analysis of Russian peacekeeping in Abkhazia is the first product of a combined research project conducted between the Royal Danish Defence College, the Centre for Military-Strategic Studies of the Russian General Staff and the Institute of Europe of the Academy of Sciences.
The project concerns ‘Conflicts and Military Involvement in the Eurasian Region from 1991 to 2006’. The objective of the research project is to examine the variety of external military involvement in conflicts in Eurasia and the role of the military in conflict settlement and peace building.
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Tribal Elders, the Taliban, NATO, and Locally Brokered Peace Deals in Afghanistan
Author: Peter Dahl Thruelsen
In October 2006, a new strategy of locally brokered peace deals for Afghanistan was tried out for the first time in the village of Musa Quala in the southern province of Helmand. The strategy was deemed controversial from the beginning, especially by the US and international experts on Afghanistan. The strategy was to broker a deal between the international forces, the local administration and the village elders. Once the deal had been agreed, the international troops and the Taliban fighters were to evacuate an exclusion zone extending five kilometres from the village centre. The elders were then left in charge of security within the village. However, after three months of relative peace in the village, the Taliban retook control of it. My argument in this article is that the peace deal brokered between the international forces, the Afghan government and the village elders in Musa Quala should be seen as the right approach to follow, but with some preconditions for success, which have not been analysed or implemented.
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The Taliban’s information warfare
Author: Thomas Elkjer Nissen, Warrant Officer
Both the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Taliban strive to win the battle of perceptions in Afghanistan as well as to positively infl uence the wider world opinion. They both achieve this through the use of information as a tool, but there the similarities end: There are major differences in how this is done, by which means it is done, and with which effect. These differences encompass political, doctrinal, legal, moral and ethical aspects that add up to an asymmetric warfare not only on how physical warfare is waged in Afghanistan, but also on how information “warfare” or Information Operations are conducted. It is inherent that there will be differences in an asymmetric war such as we see in Afghanistan; although ISAF is getting up to speed on the kinetic part of the asymmetry, it has not yet determined how to handle asymmetry in the information war. It is these differences in the information war that this brief will focus on.
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The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation: Probing the Myths
Author: Flemming Splidsboel, research coodinator
Publ. year: 2008
New regional organisations are always interesting to follow as they will tell us more about the things that make or break this type of co-operation. Originally established as “The Shanghai Five” in 1996, The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) has been successful at reducing tension between the member states but it has since found it very hard to come up with a more ambitious agenda. Mutual suspicion and zero-sum thinking clearly run deep and the continued development of the organisation has suffered as a result of this. All told, the SCO is much more façade than real policy substance.
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Russian power and the South Ossetian conflict
Author: Flemming Splidsboel, research coodinator
This study proceeds in four main parts. In the first part, I briefl y discuss the Russian interests in South Ossetia, which I argue have mainly been linked to the question of Georgia’s foreign policy orientation. Following this, I introduce the four different types of power, and I go on, in the third part, to apply these categories to the South Ossetian confl ict. As part of this, I attempt a rough categorisation of the confl ict according to the different Russian modus operandi. This part of the study does not in any way claim to be exhaustive; the aim, essentially much more modest, instead is to provide an alternative framework for the study of this type of conflict. And finally, I offer a few concluding thoughts about the conflict and about the future status of South Ossetia.
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The Rise of Russia, Sino-Russian Relations, and U.S. Security Policy
Author: Professor Robert S. Ross
Russia’s re-emergence as an infl uential European great power is all but inevitable. It possesses the underlying natural and human resources and the political will to develop the military capabilities necessary to reorder its strategic environment to enhance its security. Russia’s confl ict with the Ukraine, its military intervention in Georgia, and its hardening resistance to U.S. missile defence cooperation with Poland and the Czech Republic all refl ect the determined revival of Russian great power presence in international politics.
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Metternich and China’s Post-Cold War Grand strategy
Author: Liselotte Odgaard, professor
In this brief, I argue that China’s post-Cold War grand strategy is premised on how to avoid being categorized as a secondary power. This observation calls for a comparison of China’s grand strategy with that masterminded by Austria’s foreign minister Metternich in the first half of the nineteenth century. By 1812, Austria’s economic, military and political resources were stretched to breaking point. Nevertheless, during the following decade Metternich was instrumental in creating the preconditions for the Concert of Europe that maintained peace and stability. The comparison addresses the puzzle of how China, starting from a position of relative weakness, has come to exercise determining influence on international security arrangements by devising a political framework that protects the common interests of states and is accepted as a contribution to international stability by other states.
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The Game of Peace and Justice in Sudan
Author: Henrik Laugesen, Major
On March 4, 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) released the long expected warrant of arrest for the Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir. By mapping the political landscape before the release of the arrest warrant and by applying a game theoretical basis, this paper analyses the decision makers strategic options and choices, in the post arrest warrant environment to estimate if the consequences are refl ected as a decline in cooperation with UN in implementing peace in present Sudan. This paper includes events until May 14, 2009.
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National Security, Crime, and the South African Security Institutions
Author: Thomas Mandrup, Assistant Professor, PhD, Institute of Strategy
This brief will thus scrutinise how national security is perceived in contemporary South Africa and what challenges face South Africa’s security institutions beyond this major event and what capacity the institutions have in handling these challenges.
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